In Short:
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) reported on August 31, 2024, that all major telecom operators except BSNL lost wireless subscribers after tariff hikes effective July 3. BSNL, promoting its No Tariff Hike plans and 4G network, gained 2.53 million subscribers, while others like Airtel and Jio lost millions. This shift shows users favoring BSNL’s competitive pricing amid rising costs elsewhere.
TRAI Releases Telecom Subscription Data
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has published the Telecom Subscription Data as of August 31, 2024. This release follows the tariff revisions announced in July, which took effect on July 3, 2024. According to the latest TRAI data for July and August 2024, all telecom operators, with the exception of BSNL, have reported a decrease in wireless subscribers. This trend is linked to the tariff hikes, prompting users to migrate toward BSNL, which has not increased its tariffs.
BSNL’s Market Position
BSNL has been actively marketing its No Tariff Hike Plans via social media and promoting its upcoming 4G network enhancements. At a recent branding launch, the BSNL CMD stated that the company is committed to maintaining current tariffs to enhance customer satisfaction. The growth in BSNL’s subscriber base can be attributed to its competitive pricing strategy and positive reception of its PAN India 4G network rollout.
Timeline of Tariff Announcements
The sequence of events leading to the current situation is as follows:
June 28: Airtel announced its tariff revision, highlighting the necessity for the mobile Average Revenue per User (ARPU) to exceed Rs 300 for a sustainable business model in India. As of Q4 FY24, Bharti Airtel holds the highest mobile ARPU in the country at Rs 209.
June 28: After market hours, Vodafone Idea (Vi) issued a press release confirming its tariff adjustments.
July 3: The revised tariffs for private telecom operators—Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, and Reliance Jio—came into effect.
In contrast to the private operators, BSNL did not announce any tariff hikes, given its lack of a comprehensive 4G, VoLTE, or 5G network, making tariff revisions unnecessary. Consequently, BSNL has been focusing on promoting Mobile Number Portability (MNP) and subscriber growth through social media platforms. This strategy appears to be paying off, as many users are porting to BSNL due to its competitive pricing and the anticipation of its upcoming 4G services.
September 20: TRAI released its Telecom Subscription Data as of July 31, 2024. The data revealed that BSNL was the only operator to gain 2.93 million (2,931,971) wireless subscribers, while Airtel, Vodafone Idea, and Jio lost 1.69 million (-1,694,300), 1.41 million (-1,413,910), and 0.76 million (-758,463) subscribers, respectively. This period marked the first data release following the tariff revisions, indicating a collective subscriber loss of approximately 3.86 million for the private operators.
October 26: TRAI’s report for the month ended August 31, 2024, once again highlighted BSNL’s growth, with the company adding 2.53 million (2,532,854) wireless subscribers. Conversely, Airtel lost 2.41 million (-2,409,102), Vodafone Idea lost 1.87 million (-1,874,376), and Jio lost 4.02 million (-4,018,879) wireless subscribers. This marks a second consecutive month of declining subscribers for all private telecom companies, with a total loss of around 8.3 million subscribers.
When we review the subscriber metrics just prior to the revision, as recorded in the TRAI Data as of June 30, 2024, BSNL and Vodafone Idea were both experiencing losses. Specifically, Airtel gained 1.25 million subscribers, while BSNL, Jio, and Vodafone Idea reported mixed results. In contrast, BSNL now stands out as the only operator gaining subscribers, credited largely to the impact of the recent tariff changes.
Time Duration of Subscriber Changes
The revised tariffs for private operators were announced at the end of June, becoming effective on July 3. TRAI’s data for July reflects a 28-day adjustment period, which is vital for understanding the impact of these changes on subscriber figures.
Mobile Number Portability (MNP) Insights
Evaluating the MNP request data from TRAI reveals notable trends. In May 2024, there were 12 million MNP requests, slightly decreasing to 11.84 million in June. However, July saw an increase to 13.68 million, followed by 14.66 million in August. While TRAI does not clarify the processing status of these requests, the increases in July and August suggest a growing interest in MNP, despite potential discrepancies in processing and customer retention.
Status of Inactive Numbers
Telecom companies typically follow established procedures for managing inactive or non-recharged numbers. These policies can vary, with some numbers remaining active for extended periods without recharge. This raises questions regarding the timeliness of subscription cancellations following the tariff hikes.
Concluding Assumptions
Given the circumstances, the assumption that 3.86 million subscribers ceased their services immediately in July, followed by another 8.3 million in August, is difficult to substantiate. Even if a segment of users paused their recharges post-tariff announcement, the likelihood of immediate deactivation of their accounts remains low.
